![]() ![]() This issue is really important to Saudi Arabia, and it’s looking for an exit ramp. Iran is the only outside power that really has any influence over the Houthi movement. To me, the real sign of Saudi-Iranian rapprochement would be a settlement of the Yemen issue, not reopening embassies in each other’s countries. I don’t think that this ended any of the ongoing issues in the Saudi-Iranian relationship. But I don’t want to exaggerate what Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to here. So I think that these two things are in tension. I assume that Iran sees that, if Saudi Arabia signed on to a deal with Israel, that would further deepen Iranian isolation in the region. They are in tension, without a doubt, and I think that the extension, so to speak, of the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia was probably on the table in these talks. Are these Saudi goals-to normalize relations with Iran and to normalize relations with Israel-in tension? I imagine Israel will not be thrilled about this new deal with Iran, as the Israelis have been reaching out to other Sunni states for the ostensible purpose of containing Iran. ![]() to help it build a civilian nuclear program, in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. Recent reporting has indicated that Saudi Arabia wants the U.S. The thing that comes completely out of the blue is China’s central role in the situation. ![]() Of course, Saudi Arabia has been talking to Iran through Iraq for a year or more, so it’s not as if this comes completely out of the blue. We want to work with you, but we can’t isolate China.” And so I think the importance of the relationship with China and the desire not to alienate China diplomatically probably had something to do with it. China buys more of our oil than any other country-we can’t get involved in the United States’ efforts to create an anti-China bloc. When I talk to Saudis, one of the things that they emphasize to me is, “Don’t make us choose between you and China. But, even if the Saudi government is less apt to support an American-Israeli strike on Iran regarding the nuclear issue, that might not be enough to stop it. I don’t think that that’s necessarily why Saudi Arabia was willing to agree to this now, but it could be why China stepped in-to try to prevent some escalation on the nuclear issue. Iran is feeling somewhat isolated in the region, and I think it sees more pressure coming from the United States and Israel on the nuclear issue. It’s a reflection of China’s increased importance in the Gulf and in the Middle East more generally. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we talked about how Saudi Arabia’s leader, Mohammed bin Salman, may be rethinking his country’s foreign policy after a rocky few years with the West, whether conflict between Iran and Israel is on the horizon, and why the United States should be less paranoid about Chinese involvement in the Middle East. To discuss what this deal could mean, I spoke by phone with Gregory Gause, an expert on the Middle East and a professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. ![]() (In Yemen, Saudi Arabia launched an intervention in the hope of restoring a government overthrown by Iranian allies in Lebanon, the Saudi government forced the resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister, in 2017, a move thought to be aimed at containing Hezbollah, an Iranian ally.) Almost as significant as the agreement itself is that it was brokered by China, which has sought to expand its influence in the region. Both have been involved in proxy fights in Yemen, Lebanon, and elsewhere. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran-which is often used as a symbol of the broader tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims-has been a key feature of politics and conflict in the Middle East. The two nations pledged to reopen their embassies and also agreed to begin coöperating in areas such as security and trade. Last week, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they would reëstablish diplomatic relations after seven years of severed ties. ![]()
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